Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and entrepreneur Donald Trump both announced their entry into the race for the Republican presidential nomination last week, bringing the total number of candidates to an even dozen. The number of characters will eventually shrink like an Agatha Christie murder mystery, but given the candidates still on the sidelines the field is likely to grow before the culling.
Below is a brief analysis of the current candidates ranked by the Real Clear Politics average percentage in national polls (US), with averages for Iowa (IA) and New Hampshire (NH) included.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush (US 10.8; IA 8.5; NH 15.3). Like President George W. Bush, Jeb! hoped to use fundraising prowess to scare people out of the field. In the age of Tea Party conservatism and Super PACs it didn’t work. Everything seems to cut both ways for Bush as an establishment choice at the mercy of the expectations game. He leads polling, but not by much. He may get a surge when reporting his fundraising numbers, but anything less than $100 million could be seen as a disappointment by establishment Republicans, while anything near it underscores criticisms that he is in the pocket of big donors, not movement conservatives. As a horserace, Bush probably has the best odds, but in a craps game “No Pass” would be safer.
Sen. Marco Rubio (US 10.0; IA 9.8; NH 10.0). Rubio is the current buzz candidate, and along with the undeclared Gov. Scott Walker completes the top tier trio. Rubio scores well as a second choice, and may benefit most from hanging in there. His biggest problem could be winning early states, given Walker’s recent surge in Iowa, New Hampshire’s predilection for the Bushes and native son Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina. If Rubio survives to the Florida primary, an upset of Bush could vault him to the top.
Dr. Ben Carson (US 9.4; IA 8.5; NH 5.0). There is always a group of Republicans who want a non-politician, and for now they are backing Carson. Unfortunately for Carson, that group is small and Trump’s share will probably increase with his official entry. If Carson polls high enough to be included in the debates, he may get a second look from the broader electorate. The question will be whether primary voters see the eloquent man who dared to speak conservative truths at a prayer breakfast or the off-the-cuff gaffer who has to walk back controversial statements.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (US 8.6; IA 9.5; NH 4.5). Huckabee shocked the field in 2008 by winning the Iowa caucuses but couldn’t follow it up, both because he lacked a national organization and because Sen. Fred Thompson stayed in just long enough to split the social conservative vote and hand South Carolina to Sen. John McCain. The conventional wisdom is that Huckabee will have a hard time repeating his 2008 Iowa performance, but underestimate him at your own risk.
Sen. Rand Paul (US 8.2; IA 9.3; NH 11.0). Timing is everything in politics. Unfortunately for Paul, his peak may have been in 2014, when his anti-surveillance libertarianism fit a nation in the midst of the Snowden affair. Since then, the president’s response to threats from Russia and ISIL has moved the party back toward a hawkish interventionist position. His diehard followers have given him a higher floor than many, but the prominence of national security and the sheer number of candidates limit his growth. His best early state will be New Hampshire, and a win there could keep him in the race. If the convention is split, his ability to deliver the libertarian bloc could elevate him to king-maker status.
Sen. Ted Cruz (U.S. 7.0; IA 6.8; NH 5.0). Cruz is widely considered the “second-tier” candidate most likely to break into the top. Loved by social and Tea Party conservatives, he could benefit from early exits by the likes of Carson and Huckabee, and appears to have the fundraising to stick around for a while. His bigger problem will be Rubio, who has burned fewer bridges with the establishment and whose inspiration is more appealing than Cruz’s agitation.
Donald Trump (US 3.6; IA 4.5; NH 8.3). Trump’s entry excited Democrats more than Republicans, as he will say anything and others will have to respond. Case in point: Trump was an early and consistent “birther”, keeping a fringe theory of Obama’s origin at the center of Republican conversation far longer than most wanted. His numbers will probably climb now that his candidacy is official, but his ceiling is probably around the 15 percent anti-politician vote currently split with Carson and Fiorina.
Former Governor Rick Perry (US 3.2; IA 3.0; NH 2.5). As a 14 year governor of a large border state (Texas), Perry checks many of the usual boxes for a Republican nominee. Unfortunately, his 2012 campaign left many wondering if he can count the number of boxes accurately. (Bah-dum-bump!) Assuming he can overcome the jokes, he isn’t the clear favorite of any group and has stiff competition for second place. To have a shot, Perry must get into the first debate and turn in a performance that makes everyone forget about 2012.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (US 2.2; IA 4.7; NH 1.5). Santorum got a raw deal in 2012, with his Iowa caucus victory over Mitt Romney called too late to provide the momentum Huckabee got in 2008. Still, he came in second, which sets him up for another raw deal. Republicans have a history of nominating the runner-up from the last election (Reagan, Bush, McCain, Romney), but it’s unlikely to happen in 2016. With so many social conservatives in the race, Santorum may have problems making the debate stage much less repeating his Iowa victory.
Carly Fiorina (US 1.8; IA 2.8; NH 4.3). Fiorina is third in the “non-politician” lane behind Carson and Trump, but as the only woman in the race she has the best chance to find support outside that base. If Fiorina can continue to show her competence, attack Hillary Clinton and find issues that highlight her unique perspective (e.g., the Republican plan for over the counter birth control), she could become a major player at the convention and raise her stock as a vice presidential choice.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (US 1.4; IA –, NH –). Graham has two advantages. He has a natural base in the early primary state of South Carolina, and he has a solidly conservative record on defense spending. If defense issues dominate the debates, he could move up the ladder as the main counter-puncher to Rand Paul, but it’s hard to see him gaining significant traction unless he wins South Carolina and the field is much smaller shortly after.
Former Gov. George Pataki (US –; IA –; NH –). Who? Exactly. Pataki is a former New York governor who doesn’t even show up in the polls.
As to likely candidates who are not officially in the race: Gov. Scott Walker (US 10.6; IA 18.3; NH 11.5); Gov. Chris Christie (US 4.6; IA 4.3; NH 5.3); Gov. John Kasich (US 1.8; IA 2.0; NH 1.0); Gov. Bobby Jindal (US 1.0; IA 1.0; NH 1.5).
Looking for the Republican candidate who supports marriage equality? Despite the size of the field, the answer remains “None of the above.”
