With 100% of the precincts reporting, the race for the 52nd District Congressional seat is still undecided. Republican challenger Carl DeMaio holds a narrow lead of 752 votes but the provisional and late mail-in votes still remain to be counted. Congressman Peters was in the position of DeMaio in 2012 when he defeated Congressman Brian Bilbray. Peters was leading by 685 votes with the provisional and late mail-in votes to be counted. Peters went on to beat Bilbray by 6,992 votes.
As evidenced by the final count in 2012, provisional and late mail-in votes traditionally cut for the Democrat in a race. Peters lead against Bilbray was substantially increased after the late votes were counted. While neither the Peters or DeMaio campaign has conceded, or given an acceptance speech, whether DeMaio will be the ultimate winner remains to be seen. In 2012, Peters ended up with approximately 51% of the late vote which led to his victory over Bilbray. Of the approximately 180,000 provisional and late mail-in ballots to be counted this year, tens of thousands were cast in the 52nd Congressional District race, Congressman Peters needs to get about 51% of the remaining votes to emerge victorious. In that scenario, the vote will be so close that a recount is almost guaranteed.
Given the last scandal ridden weeks of the DeMaio campaign, political operatives believe that the late mail-in and provisional vote will cut Peters way. The question is will it be substantial enough to eliminate the razor thin lead of DeMaio. Peters was about 2,000 votes behind when the early mail-in vote was counted but closed DeMaio’s lead to just 752 votes as the night progressed. It remains to be seen if that trend will continue with the remaining votes to be counted.
2014 is a different year. The provisional and late mail-in ballots could cut for DeMaio or Peters. Democrats had a bad night nationally so DeMaio has a chance. The real question is when will San Diego know the winner? It could be a couple of weeks as the San Diego County Registrar of Voters painstakingly validates provisional ballots and opens each late mail-in ballot. It is a slow arduous process but there is a deadline; the vote has to be certified and filed by the Secretary of State by December 12, 2014. Will the Peters/DeMaio race be San Diego’s Bush/Gore? Only time will tell.
