The GOP started the 2014 cycle with high hopes and a clear path to the Senate majority. Despite Democratic gains in 2012, Republicans needed only 6 of the 7 Democratic controlled seats in states won by Mitt Romney: Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina.
Naturally, things have not remained so simple, with states flying on and off the competitive list. Here is the latest list of races that are either likely to change hands or too close to call.
West Virginia may be the one state that has stayed true to form, with Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito maintaining a solid lead for retiring Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s seat.
Democrats tried to hold Sen. Max Baucus’ Montana seat by having him retire, allowing Sen. John Walsh to run as an incumbent. Unfortunately for them, Walsh’s plagiarism scandal forced him to leave the race, apparently handing the seat to Republicans.
Former Republican Gov. Mike Rounds was supposed to have South Dakota in the bag, but late questions about a visa program and a third party candidate, former Sen. Larry Pressler, have made it competitive. Rounds still leads, but with less than 40 percent of the vote in some polls.
Democratic incumbents in Alaska and Arkansas stayed ahead much longer than some thought, but recent polls have given the edge to their Republican challengers. In Louisiana, Sen. Mary Landrieu may still win in November, but not with the 50 percent she needs to avoid a dangerous runoff.
Of the Romney states, Democrats have done the best in North Carolina, where incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan has kept a slight lead by bludgeoning her opponent with his unpopular record in the state legislature.
Republican efforts to expand the playing field met with mixed success. Democrats appear to have locked up Michigan after some close polling in the spring. In New Hampshire, former Sen. Scott Brown is finally eroding incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s lead, but may not have time to close the deal. Gaffes by Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley put State Sen. Joni Ernst in the lead in Iowa, but he appears to be crawling back to even. Colorado seemed safe for incumbent Sen. Mark Udall all summer, but is now a toss-up with polls trending to Republican Rep. Cory Gardner.
Democrats are hoping to counter with pickups of their own. In Georgia, Michelle Nunn’s early lead was evaporating until Republican David Purdue decided to defend his record of outsourcing. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes seemed to be flailing as she refused to say if she’d voted for President Obama, but Republican incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell may have thrown her a lifeline by saying that the Kynect (Obamacare in Kentucky) Web site was fine.
Kansas stumbled into play on its own, with incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts blindsided by popular independent Greg Orman. Roberts has recovered a bit by defining Orman, but the Democrats have taken their own candidate off the ballot to boost the challenger.
Most prognosticators still give Republicans better than even odds of taking control, but we may not know for sure on Election Night, as Louisiana and Georgia could go to run-offs in December and January. A 50-50 tie goes to Vice- (and Senate) President Joe Biden, who vaults into importance as the tie-breaking vote for Democrats.
