When it comes to out members of the U.S. Congress, Democrats currently lead Republicans six to nothing, including five representatives and one senator. Moderate Republicans hope to change that this year, both to broaden their base and to woo back some large LGBT donors.
The road for LGBT Republican candidates isn’t an easy one. In the age of Tea Party conservatives, it is a rare district that has enough moderate Republicans to advance an out candidate through the primary, yet enough of a conservative lean to win a general election. Just four weeks ago, Republicans hoping to raise a bigger tent were optimistic, with three viable gay candidates including former Councilmember Carl DeMaio here in San Diego. September, however, was unkind, eroding or ending the hopes of gay Republican candidates in each race.
New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District is certainly competitive in general elections, electing Democrat Carol Shea-Porter in 2006 and ousting her in 2010, only to bring her back in 2012. Out businessperson and educator Dan Innis, who was endorsed by the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, would have had a good chance at sending her home again in 2014. Unfortunately, he lost the September Republican primary to former Rep. Frank Guinta, who beat Shea-Porter in 2010.
Former Massachusetts Senate Minority Leader Richard Tisei almost became the first gay Republican elected to Congress in 2012, losing to incumbent Rep. John Tierney by less than 5,000 votes. Ironically, it wasn’t the Republican primary last month that hurt Tisei’s chances, but rather the Democratic one. Tierney, who had been plagued by scandals since the 2012 election, lost to Marine veteran Seth Moulton. With recent polls showing him down eight points, the Victory Fund endorsed Tisei’s best hopes are that Moulton proves a flawed candidate or that 2014 becomes a Republican wave election. Otherwise, Massachusetts’ 6th District will likely elect the Democrat, as it has in all but two elections since 1969.
Before Tierney’s loss, Tisei probably had the best odds of any gay Republican congressional candidate going into November. Now that mantle falls to Carl DeMaio. DeMaio has a number of things going for him, including high name recognition from his time on City Council and the 2012 mayoral campaign, a strong showing in a jungle primary where Republicans received more votes than Democrats and considerable spending by outside groups. The district itself is competitive, with nearly equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans and decline to state voters.
Working against DeMaio is that he is running against an incumbent, Rep. Scott Peters, who has worked to hone a moderate record that matches the district. Peters has also scored two important endorsements from groups that might be in the wheelhouse of a gay Republican – the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Human Rights Campaign.
The race remains competitive, but recent polling suggests it may be moving toward Peters. SurveyUSA polling that showed DeMaio up seven points shortly after the June primary showed Peters up by one in September. If DeMaio’s chances slip away, so may the hopes of electing a gay Republican to Congress in 2014.
