As San Diegans begin to realize that the 2012 election was a fundamental change election for America’s Finest City, I performed a bit of nerdy analysis in the mayoral race.
While north of Interstate 8 remains firmly Republican and Tea Party territory, the margin of difference between Republican votes and Democratic votes is shrinking. Conversely, the central city, as well as southern areas, like Otay and San Ysidro, is remaining solidly Democratic.
What that means is the Republican Party in San Diego really needs to regroup. Let’s just take a look at the mayor’s race. I thought it might be interesting to look at the returns in the “gayborhood.”
The day after the election Councilman Carl DeMaio lost to Bob Filner citywide by 9,721 votes. So let’s look at how many votes DeMaio lost by in Hillcrest, Mission Hills, North Park, Normal Heights and what is referred to as Adams North.
All of these neighborhoods make up the areas where many in the LGBT and progressive community live. Based upon the arduous task of looking at each precinct, DeMaio lost the “gayborhood” by an estimated 9,769 votes.
In essence, had DeMaio been able to get the majority of the votes of the LGBT community, he would probably be mayor today.
The lesson to future LGBT candidates in San Diego is that authenticity counts. The perceived potential loss of votes north of I-8 is not worth losing the support of the LGBT, Latino, African American, Asian American and progressive white communities.
A candidate will no longer be able to win elections by just courting the support of the Doug Manchesters and Roger Hedgecocks of the world. The San Diego landscape has permanently changed.
One thing that was alarming about last week’s election was the percentage of voters who did not vote in the mayor’s race. Roughly 65 percent of those eligible showed up to vote in the mayor’s race. Abysmal.
While we have the right to vote or not to vote, the turnout in the mayor’s race may be an indication that the average San Diegan was turned off by the negativity of the campaign or worse, did not like their available choices.
This year’s election should go down in history as the year of the LGBT voter. We represented 5 percent of the electorate and 76 percent of LGBT voters voted Democratic. No candidate running for citywide or countywide office can take our vote for granted.
The LGBT political structure in San Diego is also shifting. There will be new faces and voices coming to front and center.
While elections in San Diego will produce fewer and fewer Republican winners, the LGBT community will be a force to be reckoned with in the political arena. One of our own had to lose to make the point. Hmm, the next county supervisors up for re-election better start courting us.
STAMPP CORBIN
PUBLISHER
San Diego LGBT Weekly
