One stage. Nine challengers. Forty million viewers. And the winner takes home a six-month national TV campaign, plus a $500 million advertising contract, and a chance to challenge the current champion – one-on-one.
If that whets your appetite for a new cycle of America’s Next Top Model, I’m sorry to disappoint. It’s just the Republican presidential primary debates. But it’s an honest mistake, as the debates feature parts of our favorite reality shows. Fashion faux pas, like the blazer that ate Ron Paul. Smeyezing by Michele Bachmann that would make Tyra proud. Personal digs that are better fit for the confessional. We may yet be treated to the vocal stylings of one Herman Cain.
Unfortunately, that’s where the comparisons end. Reality series narrow the field each week. The survivors are subject to tougher challenges, longer performances and more scrutiny. Viewers and judges can evaluate subtle differences between great candidates, because the poor candidates have been eliminated. And everyone gets to vote on the full slate.
In the Republican debate series, only the location and the moderators change. The judging, if any, is done by party insiders and pollsters. Candidates are eliminated for lack of funds, not lack of talent. Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty was the only act to leave so far, because he was foolish enough to believe that straw polls matter. That’s likely where things will remain for the next eight debates, unless Herman Cain is brought down by the current harassment scandal.
The first real cuts will come in January, when the less than 1 percent of the Republican electorate residing in Iowa and New Hampshire decide who stays on the island. Then it’s on to South Carolina, Florida and Nevada; after which there may already be a presumptive candidate, despite only 15 percent of the votes being cast. The last time a California Republican cast a meaningful primary vote was probably 1976, when Gerald Ford eked past Ronald Reagan at the convention. That may explain why less than 10 percent of Californians voted in the Republican primary, compared with nearly 25 percent of Granite Staters.
New Hampshire and Iowa pretend that it has always been thus, and must continue to be. Not so. The New Hampshire primary didn’t matter much until 1952; and the Iowa caucuses didn’t take off until even later. At that time, requiring candidates to actually engage with voters (now the sanctified “retail politicking”) was an egalitarian advance over nominees chosen by party leaders in smoke-filled rooms. Prior to cable news and the 24 hour reporting cycle, there may even have been a benefit to giving more electoral power to voters who had shaken hands with the candidates. But it’s past time to evolve again, since anyone with a TV, computer or Twitter account can learn as much about the candidates as the Iowans who get to share fried Twinkies with them.
So I think it’s time to make the Republican presidential primary into a reality show. Absurd? Not if you look at the dramatic increase in participation. Sen. John McCain won the 2008 Republican presidential primary with 9.8 million votes out of approximately 20 million cast in 50 states over six months. In one night, over 20 million viewers cast over 120 million votes in the 2011 American Idol finale. We might lose the teenage female demographic and have to limit votes to one per person, but the numbers would still likely surpass any primary in history, particularly when counted over an entire primary season.
Imagine what we could learn from team challenges, where Rick Perry and Mitt Romney have to work together on an immigration plan that would top Ron Paul and Herman Cain. To avoid being on the losing team, they would have to learn to negotiate, and voters would get an idea of how they would handle congressional opposition. Maybe the winners get immunity for the tax plan episode. After a few weeks, we could even allow voters to bring back someone who left too early. Since the Iowa straw poll, Bachmann, Perry and Cain have all led national or Iowa (suddenly less important) polls – why permanently penalize Pawlenty for one bad decision. Voters could give him a lifeline in episode 10.
Really, what’s the downside? That it turns into a “popularity contest” that elects a “non-serious” nominee? Spare me. Herman Cain, the current leader in the national polls, referred to a uranium rich country that ranks 42nd in the world in population as Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan (at least I think Cain meant Uzbekistan), proudly denying any knowledge of it’s leader. Meanwhile, former Gov. Mitt Romney, his closest competition, tried to explain why his landscape company shouldn’t hire undocumented workers while he’s running for office. “For Pete’s sake,” indeed.
Sure, there are kinks to work out. We need to honor state decisions on whether non-Republicans can vote, and whether the state votes proportionally, or winner-takes-all. But the technology exists to make a more participatory primary. We just need the will and a plan. If it’s too soon for Project Candidate, maybe we can start with: So you think you can design a primary?
