What an election year. The presidential race features the two least popular candidates in history. California’s ballot has a Senate run-off with no Republican and seventeen Propositions. San Diego has two different initiatives about a Chargers stadium – or is it a Convadium? With 12 days until the votes are counted, here is where things stand.
President
As of Tuesday RealClearPolitics.com polling average showed Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 5.4 percent in the four way race with Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. fivethirtyeight.com gave Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning. Trump voters who interpret that as “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” overlook an important point: a double digit margin for Clinton is as probable as a Trump win. I think a Clinton landslide is even more likely, because almost everything the polls miss slants her way.
Polls don’t account for campaign organization. In most years, that works because the campaigns have a similar amount of money and infrastructure to get out the vote. This year, the Clinton campaign is significantly better funded and organized, particularly in battleground states. Polls also don’t see a Republican candidate at war with his party, which is increasingly prioritizing Senate and House races. Likely voter screens, which lean heavily on voting history, might miss new voters energized to vote against Trump. Trump’s only hope is a wave of previously unregistered white voters without college degrees, for which there is little evidence.
The Senate
Since 2000, when Democrats gained seats despite Vice President Al Gore’s Electoral College loss, the winning presidential candidate’s party has gained seats in the Senate. So control of the Senate will depend largely on Clinton’s margin.
Given Clinton’s current lead, most handicappers expect Democrats to net the four additional seats they need to take back the Senate. Illinois and Wisconsin are considered in the bag and Sen. Harry Reid’s Nevada seat, the one chance Republicans have to add to their majority, is finally trending toward Democratic candidate Catherine Cortez-Masto. That leaves five competitive states from which Democrats need two wins: Indiana, where they are running former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh; Missouri, where Secretary of State Jason Kander’s ability to assemble a rifle blind-folded has put him in contention; Pennsylvania, where Sen. Pat Toomey’s attempt at moderation may be swamped by Clinton’s growing lead; New Hampshire, where Sen. Kelly Ayotte can’t get past her endorsement of Trump as a role model; and North Carolina, where Clinton’s efforts, a governor and legislature who pushed their conservatism too far, and an underwhelming incumbent have put the race in play.
Trump’s campaign has put congressional candidates in a tough position: defend Trump and lose moderates or dump Trump and lose his base. That and the fact that contested Senate races have recently broken in the same direction suggest Democrats’ hold on the Senate could get stronger. Seats in Florida (Sen. Marco Rubio) and Arizona (Sen. John McCain) lean Republican at the moment, but a Clinton landslide could put them back in play. In short, Clinton by two is a Senate toss-up, Clinton by six is a likely Democratic takeover, and Clinton by 10 could give Democrats a comfortable, but not filibuster-proof, majority. Until 2018, when they will be playing defense.
The House
Democrats would need to win 30 additional seats to take the majority. Prior to the release of Trump’s comments on Access Hollywood, a takeover was considered impossible. It is still considered a stretch, in part because the generic Congressional ballot has Democrats up by four points, a point short of Clinton’s lead and six points short of the margin pundits think would be needed to take control. The other problem is that there simply aren’t many competitive races. To make Rep. Nancy Pelosi speaker again. Democrats will have to win all of the current “toss-up” races, and pull in a more than a few “lean Republican” districts.
What to watch: Polls in Florida and North Carolina close at 7 and 7:30 p.m. EST, respectively. If Clinton wins either, she will be president. Democrats likely get control of the Senate if they win either seat. Democratic victories in Republican leaning districts like Indiana-09, New York-24, and Pennsylvania-16 would suggest the speaker’s gavel is within reach.
California
We’ve known since June that retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer would be succeeded by a Democrat. Current polling, and a barrage of ads featuring President Obama, suggests that Attorney General Kamala Harris will be the next senator from California.
Political handicapper Charlie Cook rates three California seats currently held by Republicans as “Toss-Up,” including Rep. Darryl Issa (R-49). San Diego County’s other Representatives, Susan Davis (D-53), Scott Peters (D-52), Juan Vargas (D-51), Duncan Hunter Jr. (R-50) are all expected to cruise to re-election.
Odd numbered districts are up in the California State Senate this year, but there is little local excitement. Current Sen. Marty Block (D-39) eventually cleared the way for former Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins to succeed him after one term. For reasons known only to cartographers and politicians, San Diego County’s remaining Districts are even numbered, with CA-37 north of the adjacent 36th and 38th Districts.
All California Assembly Districts are up this year, but there are no surprises expected. Outgoing City Councilmember Todd Gloria will take Atkins seat in the 78th District. Other local Assemblymembers are expected to cruise to re-election, including: Marie Waldron (R-75), Rocky Chavez (R-76), Brian Maienschein (R-77), Shirley Weber (D-79) and Lorena Gonzalez (D- 80). In CA-71, the general election features two Republicans hoping to succeed term limited Assemblymember Brian Jones.
Overall, Democrats need to net one seat in the Senate and two in the Assembly to gain the two-thirds majority required to pass budgets without Republican help. There are a number of competitive seats, and Democrats hope that Trump will help take down Republicans in swing districts.
There are too many propositions to cover here. If you need a summary, check out “The Proposition Song” at calvoter.org. The “Yes” side is polling well on many questions, but early surveys had high numbers of undecided voters and were largely conducted before the ad war began. Undecided voters tend to break toward the status quo and choose “No.”
San Diego County
In most close races, candidates release tight polls to underscore fundraising urgency, not ones that show them winning. Since incumbent Supervisor Dave Roberts (D-3) has been releasing the latter, he is likely pulling ahead in this race.
Should he win, Roberts will remain the lone Democrat, with Republicans Dianne Jacob (D-2) and Greg Cox (D-1) likely to be re-elected. With Districts 4 and 5 potentially competitive in 2018, Roberts’ seat is the key to any chance Democrats have of a takeover in two years.
City of San Diego
The City Council, like the California Senate, has odd numbered districts up this year. At least it did until June, when Chris Ward (D3), Chris Cate (D5), and Scott Sherman (D7) all won in the primary. Barbara Bry’s opponent, Ray Ellis, has conceded the D1 race, leaving “Which Democrat will win in D9?” as the only real question. Ricardo Flores won the primary, but the race seems to be leaning toward Georgette Gomez, who has consolidated considerable progressive support.
With Mayor Faulconer also winning in June, the marquee November race is for City Attorney, where Mara Elliott is facing off against Robert Hickey. Public polling is sparse, but Democrats typically do well in City elections that make it to November. There could be more of those if Measures K and L pass, ensuring that all elections and ballot measures are decided in the general election.
As to the Chargers initiatives, Measures C and D, the future remains murky. Those who want the Chargers to stay could vote for one, both, or neither. They could be challenged on the number of votes needed, the breadth of the measure, or that they officially can’t be linked to the Chargers.
