Long time readers will remember the “Return on Investment Index” for equality, an idea adapted from Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com to describe the best place to spend your last hour, or $20, to have an impact on LGBT issues. The analysis favors smaller, closer elections with broad implications, so you won’t see safe seats even with great candidates. Here are the local 2016 races where your efforts in these last 26 days might be decisive.
County Supervisor, District 3
Supervisor Dave Roberts gets the top spot for a number of reasons: seat at the table, local LGBT impact, and close race. Roberts is the only LGBT seat at the Supervisors’ table and the only Democrat, the first elected after nearly two decades of unanimous Republican rule. The Supervisors control a huge budget, including health care dollars critical to fighting AIDS, syphilis and Hepatitis C. While there has been little public polling, the race is believed to be close but winnable for Roberts. Volunteers who want to carry an LGBT candidate over the finish line should work to keep Dave Roberts on the County Board of Supervisors.
Yes on Measures K and L
The sheer number of ballot measures makes it easy to give up on all of them. Please don’t. Unlike most measures, K and L aren’t about a one-time stadium issue, confusing tax or charter edit. They are an investment in democracy that will build on itself and pay dividends. Democracy works best when citizens are engaged, and too few citizens, particularly those in traditionally underrepresented communities, are engaged in primary elections. Measures K and L will ensure that decisions about our leaders and governance are made in November when more voters participate. That’s not only good for the LGBT community, it’s kind of what America is all about.
San Diego Council District 9
If Georgette Gomez were running against a Republican, she might have made the top spot, but D9 and the Council will remain in Democratic control even if she loses. But she shouldn’t. It’s time to have an LGBT woman of color on the Council, and Gomez is a tremendous progressive voice who made it through the primary in a refreshingly old-fashioned way – by knowing the voters in her district and fighting for them for years.
U.S. Congressional District CA-49
In one of this year’s electoral surprises, retired Marine Col. Doug Applegate is running strong against Republican Rep. Darryl Issa, one of the richest members of Congress with strong ties to the House leadership. This makes the list because a David has a real chance to beat Goliath, and the CA-49 is the kind of district Democrats must win to gain control of the House of Representatives. Applegate might not be the decisive 218th House vote for equality legislation, but he deserves the opportunity.
