Democratic discussions of the 2016 San Diego mayoral race were long focused on one question: “Todd or Toni?” Some thought Assembly Speaker Atkins fundraising and connections gave her the best chance to defeat Mayor Faulconer. Others thought “iMayor” Gloria, who skipped the special election to put the city first, was the better option. Most were happy with either.
Then Gloria announced he would seek Atkins’ Assembly seat, shocking many of his supporters. Their pain is only exacerbated by the fact that Atkins seems increasingly unlikely to announce a bid. Calm “Todd or Toni?” debates have been replaced by a desperate hunt for Plan C.
Elected Democrats provide a healthy list of options, but the realities of the race will give most of them pause. A presidential electorate should help Democrats in 2016, as it did in 2012, but Mayor Faulconer has the advantage of incumbency and after vetoing the minimum wage increase has charted an arguably moderate course. Unless he loses the Chargers, it will be hard to paint him as a dangerous choice.
Candidate specific issues also hurt recruitment. Unlike Atkins and Gloria, most local Democrats aren’t termed out of their current offices, making the mayor’s race an unnecessary risk. Representatives Susan Davis and Juan Vargas can likely have their seats as long as they like. Rep. Scott Peters’ seat is more competitive, but a mayoral run would bring up tough votes from his days on City Council, as it might for former State Sen. Christine Kehoe. State Sens. Ben Hueso and Marty Block can keep their current seats, as can Assemblymember Shirley Weber.
County Supervisor Dave Roberts’ staff issues likely ended any small chance that he would run for mayor instead of re-election. As for current Councilmembers. Myrtle Cole and David Alvarez both have two more years on their terms, but Cole has only served since 2013 and Alvarez’s mayoral loss is still fresh. A second loss so quickly is hard to come back from, which is why Nathan Fletcher is probably out. Marti Emerald would likely have announced any mayoral ambitions when she bowed out of the District 9 race, and Council President Sherri Lightner might have difficulty energizing progressives
That leaves the new buzz candidate: Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez. Gonzalez isn’t termed out, but the mayor’s office is a better step toward statewide ambitions. Her current interest in Civic San Diego could be read as a warm up bout to draw contrasts with the mayor. She has formidable assets as a candidate, and would likely benefit from a “Year of the Woman” ballot led by Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris.
Many Democrats fear that the lack of a strong mayoral candidate could jeopardize that minimum wage increase, which they want as much or more than the mayor’s office. If Atkins stays out, they may decide the best answer to “Todd or Toni?” is “Lorena.”
