On Monday, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz announced his bid for president in 2016, skipping the fundraising exploratory phase in which many of his potential competitors are lingering. Dozens of people you’ll never hear of file paperwork to run for president each cycle, so Cruz wasn’t the first candidate, but he’s the first one you’re likely to know, and his entry will likely be the starting gun for other serious contenders. With more candidates expected to announce during the upcoming congressional recess, it seems a good time to evaluate the Republican field.
Cruz is in, obviously. He gets points for being first, but loses more for stepping on his own media cycle. One day after vowing to repeal every word of Obamacare, Cruz announced he was signing his family up for it. He may be able to spin it as an “I understand people like you” moment. If not, it will probably alienate Tea Party voters he can’t afford to lose. Given the number of enemies he’s made in the Republican establishment, his long shot candidacy may have just gotten longer.
Former Gov. Jeb Bush will also run. The Bush team will never admit it, but they are running the Mitt Romney (and President George W. Bush) game plan, using the exploratory phase to announce with a fundraising total so high that it will scare off competition. There are two problems with this. First, speculation has Bush’s number so high that he may have trouble meeting expectations, much less exceeding them. Second, it didn’t work for Romney. In 2008, McCain beat him, and in 2012, right wing money and generous billionaires kept his competition in the race. Bush appears to be the establishment choice, but his stances on common core and immigration will make him a tough sell to socially conservative voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Bush is a good bet if he can make it to Florida and other friendly territory, but he’s far from a sure thing.
Gov. Scott Walker looks like he will join the race. He surprised many pundits with an energetic and charismatic performance at an early Iowa event, and has joined Bush at the top of most primary polls. Like Cruz, Walker’s base will be the Tea Party and social conservatives, but he has done much less to antagonize the establishment, is a hero to union-busters, and has won three statewide races in blue Wisconsin. At the moment, Walker is probably the second best bet after Bush. If he proves ready for prime time with regard to the press and fundraising, he could become the conservative alternative to any establishment choice.
Sen. Rand Paul has been running for president since he became a senator. When the Kentucky Republican Party approved a plan for a caucus so he could run for president and senator simultaneously, Paul seemed to admit some people would be angry if he stayed on the sidelines. While still charting his own path on issues like prison reform and marijuana, Paul has maintained a better relationship with the establishment than Cruz. His greatest vulnerability is foreign policy, where the isolationist tendencies that thrill his libertarian base are anathema to defense hawks. It’s hard to see him winning the nomination unless other establishment candidates implode.
Sen. Marco Rubio is perhaps the biggest question mark. He would likely give up his Senate seat to run, and he would be fighting Bush, a mentor, for money and votes in Florida. He is seen by many as the future of the Republican Party, and the best way to reverse the growing Democratic advantage among Latino voters. Like Walker, he has support in both Tea Party and religious circles. His work on immigration reform could be a problem, but Rubio has been walking that back for some time with reasonable success. A recent Fox News piece detailing his three part plan to replace Obamacare certainly looks like the beginning of a campaign platform, but he could just as easily take it back to the Senate. He will be a force if he gets in the race and can stay out of Bush’s shadow.
Former Gov. Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008, but didn’t have the infrastructure to go forward, especially after losing South Carolina. There’s little reason to think things would be different this time around, except it will be much harder for him to win Iowa with the number of social conservatives who are running.
Haven’t heard of Gov. John Kasich? That’s his biggest problem. His resume is impressive, with nine terms in the House of Representatives, including a stint as Budget Committee chair, and two terms governing Ohio, a must-win state for Republicans. He’ll have trouble generating buzz, but if the party reverts to form and looks to a seasoned establishment choice, Kasich could get a look.
Sen. Lindsey Graham appears to be running as a deal-making defense hawk. It’s a lane he will have to himself and one that worked for John McCain in 2008. Unfortunately for Graham, he lacks McCain’s biography, and the party has lurched to the right in the past eight years. South Carolina’s early primary could keep Graham in the race, but he’s unlikely to do more than pose some tough questions to the bomb throwers in the party.
Representative, and former vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate, but he appears happy to let Gov. Scott Walker represent Wisconsin while he moves up the rungs of Congress.
Gov. Chris Christie and Gov. Bobby Jindal are in a heated competition for biggest early implosion. Each did a turn as the party darling, but both are facing plummeting numbers in their home states and difficult budget situations. Christie’s infrastructure makes him more likely to run anyway, but he’ll need a break to get a second look. Otherwise, he’ll remain the establishment choice … of 2012.
