Despite their national gains in the 2014 election, the Republican Party continues to struggle in California. All statewide elected offices are held by Democrats, and the GOP barely prevents supermajorities in the State Assembly and Senate. San Diego, the largest American city led by a Republican, is a bright spot by comparison.
Still, 2016 presents a problem for the GOP in San Diego. Faulconer appears poised to run for a full term as mayor and Republican City Council members appear to be content to run for re-election (Councilmembers Mark Kersey and Scott Sherman) or stay in their seats (Councilmembers Lori Zapf and Chris Cate). Who will run for higher office?
Enter Marine veteran Jacque Atkinson, whose name has been mentioned for everything from City Council District 3 to Assembly District 78 to the 52nd Congressional District. Should she run? For what?
Asking “Should _____ run for _____?” is actually asking at least three questions? Is it the right candidate? Is it the right race? Is it the right year? Let’s look at the Congressional race.
Is Atkinson the right candidate? Yes. I have known her for years, and consider her a friend. She is honorable and a patriot. When I started working with the Human Rights Campaign in San Diego, she helped me with outreach to members of the military, and has always been there to help LGBT causes. If I had to trust someone I disagreed with politically to do the right thing, she’d be on my short list.
Is it the right race? Maybe. The 52nd Congressional District will always appear competitive by registration, as it is split nearly evenly between Democrats, Republicans and Decline to State. That said, Rep. Scott Peters defeated an incumbent in 2012 (Rep. Brian Bilbray) and a well-funded challenger with high name recognition (former Councilmember Carl DeMaio) in 2014, the latter year being another Republican wave that evaporated on California’s shores. Peters will always appear vulnerable by the numbers, but he fits the moderate district well, and it will take a fairly perfect storm for a Republican to unseat him.
Is 2016 the right year? Put quite simply: No. In 2012, Peters beat an incumbent Republican. He will have a leg up in any presidential election year, and more if former Secretary Clinton runs. Clinton will excite the LGBT community and women in general to vote. Any hope that Atkinson can capitalize on new women voters will be dashed when Clinton endorses Peters, no doubt in a high profile co-branded fundraising event in La Jolla. If Clinton doesn’t run, the fundamentals in California still heavily favor Peters in 2016, barring a complete Democratic meltdown.
Unfortunately, CA-52 isn’t a race you can win by losing. It’s rare to get a second shot at a race these days, and it will be hard to shine by beating expectations if people perceive the 2016 race to be more winnable than it is. Further, people like Zapf and Cate might be ready to run against Peters in 2018, a Republican leaning off year election.
So what to do? Run for Assembly. It’s a Democratic leaning district and if no other Republicans jump in, you might make the run-off. If you do, you can easily outperform recent Republicans, since the metric was taking on Atkins and you won’t be. You also might pick up votes from members of the LGBT community who, despite their respect for Atkins’ endorsement of Sarah Boot, would like to keep the seat in LGBT hands. Win or lose, you’re in a better position to run against Peters in 2018, when a Republican stands a much better chance.
