Oh the trials of writing a weekly political print column. Last week, in the day between submitting my big questions for the year and printing them, Sen. Barbara Boxer answered one of them by announcing she would not seek re-election in 2016. Since then, some of the major players have stolen my opportunity for impressive prognostication by announcing their intentions.
All that’s left for me is to join what will no doubt be a tiresome parade of pugilistic election parallels with a discussion of who’s in the ring to take Boxer’s title. For once I’m glad that we are online only, so there is a chance the information will be up to date. (Check out my original list of contenders here: https://lgbtweekly.jeffjungblut.com/2014/09/25/who-would-take-sen-barbara-boxers-seat-if-she-retires/)
In: California Attorney General Kamala Harris. Harris and Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom have shared the top spot on the list to replace Boxer since rumors of her retirement began, but few believed both will run. As an African and Asian American woman who has been twice elected statewide, she brings name recognition and a formidable base, as well as her significant political talents. Harris announced her run on Tuesday, which means…
Out: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom bowed out Monday before Harris joined the race, which most guess was a scripted dance that the two participants deny. Having followed Newsom’s career since he first ran for mayor when I lived in San Francisco, this doesn’t surprise me. Newsom wants to be president, and governor of California is the better step toward that goal. Newsom for governor and Harris for Senate sets up a 2016 election card worthy of Don King, especially with a presidential election as the headliner.
Toe-in: Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Villaraigosa was the first high profile potential candidate to comment on the race, saying Saturday that he was “seriously considering looking at running.” Well, that’s definitive.
If Villaraigosa’s almost sort of trial balloon was an attempt to keep Newsom and Harris out of the race, it was doomed to fail. My guess is that he is also seriously considering looking at running for governor, and sign up for whichever bout seems more winnable. Running against Harris sets up an interesting clash of constituencies: male vs. female, African Asian American vs. Latino, Northern California vs. Southern. It also doesn’t leave much room for other candidates.
Out: Mayor Kevin Faulconer. Faulconer “tweet” them to all to the punch, posting his disinterest on Twitter last Thursday. No real surprise here, as running for Senate in 2016 would divide his focus in the next two years, force him to face a Democrat friendly presidential electorate, and leave him out of a job should he lose. His options look better in 2018, when an 84-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein might retire, allowing him to run from a secure spot as mayor with more conservative midterm voters. The caveat to waiting: he must win re-election in 2016.
?? – Tom Steyer is a billionaire with a commitment to the environment who spent millions on the 2014 elections and is reportedly considering a run. Haven’t heard of him? That’s one of his hurdles. Another is the poor track record of uber-rich candidates in California, e.g. Carly Fiorina, Meg Whitman and Michael Huffington. Combine those with the fact that “green” isn’t usually a voter’s top allegiance and Steyer would probably do better to stay out and use his super-PAC to keep his issues in the headlines; however, his desire to replace Boxer with another champion of the environment may be strong enough to get him in the ring.
?? – Assemblymember Rocky Chavez. California Republicans need someone moderate enough to win statewide in California, and Chavez may fit the bill. Name recognition will be a problem, but he has cut something of a moderate profile, and I have heard local Democrats say positive things about him. If other elected Republicans choose to stay in safe legislative seats, he may be the only option beyond self-funders and party operatives.
?? – A Romney. It seems like former Massachusetts governor and Republican standard bearer Mitt Romney is spending a lot more time in his La Jolla home. While it’s doubtful he would give up his apparently renewed presidential ambitions for a senate run, Mitt is far from the only Romney who could run for office. His wife, Anne, or one of his children, could no doubt turn the Romney money and connections into a formidable campaign machine.
