Barring an unexpected vacancy, 2015 should be a boring electoral year, as there won’t be any major offices open at the federal, state or local level. That doesn’t mean it will be a boring political year, particularly as candidates begin jockeying for 2016 races.
The following are some of the major questions that will get the dominos falling for next year’s races:
WWSDD? What Will Susan Davis Do? Rep. Davis does an amazing job representing the gayborhood and the rest of the 53rd Congressional District, so the job is and should be hers as long as she wants it. Her retirement, however, could solve a potential problem for Democrats, and start the dominos. Both Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins and City Councilman Todd Gloria are termed out in 2016, and the only currently available step-up for both is mayor. If Davis wants Gloria to succeed her, as has long been rumored, this could be the ideal year, giving him a place to land while leaving the mayoral race for Atkins. Otherwise, Gloria would have to face Atkins for mayor, sit out a cycle, or run for Atkins’ seat.
Once Davis makes her call, Gloria and Atkins can make theirs. Once that happens, the races for their seats will begin to take shape as well.
Will Sen. Barbara Boxer retire? California hasn’t had an open Senate seat since 1992 when both Boxer and Sen. Dianne Feinstein were elected. Their 22 years in office and Jerry Brown’s return to the governor’s mansion have created a bottleneck for California’s young political talent. A Boxer retirement could create a flood of candidates, particularly on the Democratic side.
While Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, Attorney General Kamala Harris, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa get the most chatter, any high profile Democrat without another obvious next step might give it a go. Unless Assembly Speaker Toni Atkins were to run, however, a Boxer retirement most likely affects San Diego Republicans, as Mayor Kevin Faulconer might be the GOP’s best shot at the seat.
Will Hillary run for president? Nationally, this is the question, but it honestly has little to do with the local scene. If Hillary passes, Vice President Biden becomes the nominal front-runner of a potentially huge field, filled with people you may not have heard of. At least until Sen. Elizabeth Warren announces.
If Hillary is “Ready for Hillary” the fields shrinks, but probably doesn’t clear. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is already in the race, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley seems set on a run.
Do Speaker John Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell want a record of accomplishment or the White House? After the 2014 wave, Republicans have control of the Senate and a large majority in the House, but not enough votes to override vetoes. If these long term legislators want to get things done, expect them to negotiate with President Obama to create bipartisan laws that both the far right and left will dislike. If they want to deliver the White House to Republicans in 2016, expect more gridlock with President Obama, and his veto pen, getting the blame.
