Last week, President Obama used executive power to provide legal status to approximately 5 million undocumented immigrants. Now that the details are known, we can start scoring the winners and losers for this round of the immigration debate.
Losers:
Immigrants not covered by the action. Unfortunately, it’s hard to imagine a more inclusive immigration reform any time soon. Action by the new Republican Congress is unlikely, and any legislation that did pass would almost certainly narrow the reform, not broaden it. Further executive action may also be difficult, as the president has more or less defined this as the limit of executive authority. That leaves approximately 6 million people at risk of deportation.
Republicans. If House Republicans were smart, they would pass the Senate immigration bill in the lame duck session, declare victory over the president’s action, and get the issue behind them. Since they won’t, their best option is to do nothing and wind down the rhetoric. Yes, they’ll appear impotent, but that’s better than impotent and mean, which is how they’ll look sending anti-immigrant legislation to be vetoed by the president. Chaotic is also a possibility, as divisions within the GOP might keep them from passing anything.
Sen. Kay Hagan, Sen. Mark Udall and Gov. Charlie Crist. Conventional wisdom says that the president announced his plan after the election to protect Democrats running in red states. They all lost anyway.
Winners:
Democrats. President Obama won’t face voters again, but Democrats will. To win in states like Colorado and North Carolina, they need better Latino support and turnout than this year, when both states elected Republican senators. The president’s executive order allows 2016 candidates to run on protecting the gains for immigrants and building on them. If those protected by the executive action eventually become voters, Obama may have locked down an electoral advantage for years to come.
President Obama. While legislation would have been better for immigrants, this road might just be better for the president. Had the Senate bill passed, he would have shared the credit for reform and taken the blame for some of the harsher security provisions. This way, he gets all the credit for what he did, and can pin the blame for what he couldn’t do on Republicans.
Immigrants covered by the action. Why aren’t they first? Because the gains, while important, are sadly temporary. While I don’t think Congress will be able to stop President Obama, the next president could undo everything. Even if he or she doesn’t, there is no path to citizenship or permanent status, no ability to vote to protect their own interests, and likely no good access to health insurance. Unless more is done, even immigrants protected by Obama’s action will be left in just the sort of semi-permanent second class guest worker status that liberals have fought against in prior legislative efforts.
