There will be many who will run from the Carl DeMaio defeat like roaches when the lights come on, but one fact remains, the LGBT community re-elected Congressman Scott Peters. How can our community take credit? It’s a simple math lesson.
When DeMaio conceded on Sunday afternoon, the total votes counted were 183,831. Congressman Peters was leading DeMaio by 4,771 votes. Keep that number in your mind: 4,771.
The LGBT community represented 4-5 percent of the voters who participated in the election earlier this month. At 5 percent of the electorate, 9,191 voters in the 52nd Congressional District were members of the LGBT community.
If the 52nd District mirrors the national vote of the LGBT community in this month’s election, 76 percent of LGBT voters pulled the lever for Democrats and 23 percent pulled the lever for Republicans. 76 percent of the 9,191 LGBT voters in the Peters/DeMaio race means that 6,985 LGBT people voted for Peters.
If the LGBT community was only 4 percent of the electorate, 7,353 voters in the 52nd District were members of the LGBT community. Once again, 76 percent of the 7,353 voters pulled the lever for Democrats representing 5,588 votes.
In either scenario, the LGBT vote for Peters is greater than the 4,771 vote lead that Peters has over DeMaio. 6,985 > 4,771, 5,588 > 4,771; DeMaio lost because the LGBT community voted overwhelmingly for Peters. Ergo, the LGBT community re-elected Congressman Scott Peters. Q.E.D.
As the races in San Diego continue to get decided by smaller and smaller margins, the LGBT community will become even more crucial to a successful citywide, county or congressional district race. LGBT Weekly will continue to make sure that candidates are on record supporting full equality; anything less and, well the candidate just needs to call Carl DeMaio. I am sure he’ll explain the math to them.
Dear future candidates, no more showing up to an LGBT Center event and expecting my community’s undying support. That’s so ‘80s. No more, the office I am running for has nothing to do with “social” issues. Our civil rights are not social issues. And by the way, all elected public officials may be faced with an issue concerning LGBT equality because each public official should represent the interests of all the citizens he or she represents.
No more cavalier “let me call” the court jesters and charlatans in the San Diego LGBT community; “if they support me, I’ll win.” Really? Just call Carl DeMaio. Those same LGBT jesters and charlatans really helped get him across the finish line.
Future candidates, the moral to the 52nd Congressional race is the same as the one for one of my favorite children’s books, The Emperor’s New Clothes. As the story goes, two weavers make the Emperor a new suit of clothes that is invisible to those who are unfit for their positions in the kingdom, stupid or incompetent. When the Emperor marches in a parade everyone pretends they can see the new suit of clothes except one child who says, “The Emperor has no clothes.”
Political candidates cherish the LGBT votes that some self-appointed leaders say they can deliver. Just like the child in the story, the voter is telling the truth.
Politicians don’t be fooled; no one person or “leader” can deliver the LGBT vote. A candidates’ genuine and consistent record on LGBT equality, as well as the source of the candidate’s financial support, is what ultimately will deliver the LGBT electorate.
Our readers want to know that a candidate will be a vocal advocate for LGBT civil rights. LGBT Weekly will continue to ensure that the LGBT community is accurately informed of where a candidate stands with respect to our full equality. Once again, Q.E.D.
STAMPP CORBIN
PUBLISHER
San Diego LGBT Weekly
LGBTweekly.com
Spot On Correct.
Even if you adjust the numbers slightly to take into account demographic issues present in the 52nd District [such as Rancho Bernardo may not be 4-6 & gay, while PB may well be 6-8 Gay] the conclusion is accurate.
City Employees learned a long time ago that 3-6% of registered voters who actually VOTE in unity can control big issues in the City. San Diego has roughly 600,00 eligible voters. 400,000 registered voters. And with turnouts of 40% , 200,000-250,000 actual.
If a 4-5 % allied group of issue voters actually register and actually vote–that can control outcomes.
For all these same reasons, Filner’s win can fairly be credited in large part to the voting LGBT Community. Look at the numbers for 2012—Percentage turnout in 92103 Precincts and the voting percentage in 92103 that went to Filner.
I enjoyed reading your article. However, I think you left out a very important faction in determining the course of future political races.
The rapid increase in this country’s acceptance of, and vocal support for, the LGBTQQ community has also affected the voting choices of these straight allies. It is not just those who identify as LGBTQQ that will determine the course of future elections. Please do not forget to include the burgeoning population who have joined us in demanding that politicians stand with us in our fight. Like us, our straight friends will no longer tolerate discrimination and inequality in any form.