Election Day is when we hold our elected officials accountable for their policies. The days after are when we hold pundits accountable for their analysis and predictions. I think it’s only fair to take another look at last week’s column (https://lgbtweekly.jeffjungblut.com/2014/10/30/election-preview/) and see how I did.
“The most competitive race is for superintendent of public instruction, but it features two Democrats, Tom Torlakson and Marshall Tuck. Republicans’ best hope of grabbing a state wide office appears to be with Pete Peterson as secretary of state …”
Nailed it in California, where the Republican wave once again failed to come ashore. Democrats won all state wide offices, and Pete Peterson’s 47.5 percent in the race for secretary of state was the best Republican showing. The closest race is indeed for superintendent of public instruction, where Tom Torlakson leads Marshall Tuck by only 4.2 percent. Propositions 1 and 2 passed, and 45 and 46 fell.
“Democrats will actually hold the Senate, but that could change with tomorrow’s numbers.”
Yeah, I blew this one. Polling in competitive Senate races did move toward Republicans last week, but I still wouldn’t have predicted the wave that emerged. Republicans may gain as many as nine seats in the Senate, and unexpectedly turned Virginia into a nail-biter. Their incumbents held on in most governors’ races and took over in the Democratic strongholds of Massachusetts, Illinois and Maryland. They will also likely have their largest majority in the House of Representatives since the 1920s.
How did I miss the wave? Some of the blame lies with pollsters. Numbers guru Nate Silver says that polls were skewed four points toward Democrats on average. In purple states like Iowa, North Carolina and Colorado that was enough to make Democrats appear even or ahead when they were really slightly or significantly behind. The polls were even worse in red states like Arkansas, Georgia and Kentucky, where Democrats were supposed to have a chance to offset other losses but came up short by an average of 13 points.
I also let the numbers obscure some lessons from prior elections. First, candidates matter. No poll in Iowa should have made me think Democrat Bruce Braley had a chance after he insulted farmers and senior Sen. Grassley in one comment. Similarly, it was probably unlikely that Floridians would elect Charlie Crist as a Democrat after rejecting him as both a Republican and an Independent.
Second, toss-up races aren’t actually coin flips. Tails has a 50 percent chance on each toss, so it has a >90 percent probability of coming up at least once in four tries. It’s tempting to think of close races that way, but history tells us it isn’t the case. Since 2006 the vast majority of toss-up races have fallen in line with the national trend, except where poor candidates have imploded, e.g., Christine “I’m not a witch” O’Donnell. By Wednesday morning it was more surprising that Jeanne Shaheen held on in New Hampshire than that Kay Hagan lost North Carolina.
Peters faces a stiff challenge from former Councilmember Carl DeMaio … the safest prediction is that we won’t have a clear winner on Election Night.
I’m giving myself points here, despite some of the victory declarations on Facebook. With all the precincts counted, DeMaio led Peters by 752 votes with the County Registrar of Voters reporting nearly 180,000 ballots still to be counted (not all will be from the 52nd District). In Peters’ 2012 victory, the late vote increased his lead by nearly 6,000 votes. We should soon know if I was right that a scandal weary electorate will eventually hand the seat to Peters, but I’m sticking with it for now.
The same late votes could help Carol Kim in City Council District 6, but I doubt they will put her over the top. Instead, Chris Cate, who won the primary with 47 percent, may end up getting even more than the extra 4 percent he needs to win the general and let Mayor Faulconer’s vetoes stick.
For now, I’m giving myself an incomplete. If Peters wins, I’ll take a B- for getting California and San Diego correct, but missing the mark at the national level. Oddly, that’s the same thing Democrats will have done, but I think they’ll be given a far worse grade.
