San Diego County Registrar of Voters Michael Vu had predicted a 35 percent voter turnout for Tuesday’s primaries. In reality, the Counties’ voters exceeded predictions of a low turnout registering little more than a 20 percent.
In the city of San Diego Propositions B and C failed, meaning the current Barrio Logan Community plan is dead, or at best in stasis for a year. In election night coverage, Mayor Kevin Faulconer committed to negotiating a new plan that would prevent job losses, while Councilmember David Alvarez (D8) noted that this was already the negotiated deal.
Alvarez and fellow incumbent Councilmember Myrtle Cole (D4) both won re-election outright with over 50 percent of the vote, as did Lorie Zapf, who moved to District 2. Democrats will still have a chance at keeping their veto-proof council majority in November, as Carol Kim has advanced to a run-off against Chris Kate in the race for Zapf’s old seat in District 6.
Across the County, Ron Roberts cruised to re-election unopposed. His colleague on the Board of Supervisors, Bill Horn (D-5), trailed Oceanside mayor Jim Wood early in the night, but broke 50 percent with a 1,400 vote lead once all the precincts were counted. Horn appears safe, but this one may not be called until all the absentee ballots are in and counted. And maybe recounted.
Despite Monday’s reporting that she a wrote a college recommendation for Jose Susumo Azano Matsura’s son, District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis topped the 50 percent mark, keeping her job for another four years. Dumanis’ lead largely held through the night, suggesting she would have won regardless of the revelation, but it does underscore the advantage of banking votes before election day.
Ernest Dronenburg will remain assessor/clerk despite Susan Guinn’s best effort. On a happier LGBT note, San Diego Unified School District President Kevin Beiser put up a strong showing with 68 percent of the vote.
In state races, Gov. Jerry Brown, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Attorney General Kamala Harris all won their primaries handily, with only Newsom failing to crack 50 percent. They still have to run in November, against Republicans Neel Kashkari, Rob Nehring and Ronald Gold respectively. California Democrats were safe from the Republican wave of 2010, leaving no reason to think their numbers won’t be even better in November.
In more competitive races, Republican Pete Petersen will face Democrat Alex Padilla for secretary of state. Democrats appeared to narrowly avoid shooting themselves in the foot in the controller race, with former Assembly Speaker John Perez currently leading Republican David Evans by 2,400 votes for the second November spot against Republican Ashley Swearingen.
Both Proposition 41 (Veterans housing) and 42 (Shifting Open Records Fees) passed handily.
There were no surprises in local State Assembly and Senate races, with incumbents winning handily where they had any opposition. Ironically, newly minted Speaker Toni Atkins (D-78) had the closest local race, with “only” 60 percent of the vote. More competitive districts in other parts of the state mean we won’t know until November if Democrats will regain their supermajorities in the California legislature.
Nationally, voters in Alabama, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota also went to the polls Tuesday. Most of those contests won’t affect Californians, but two of the U.S. Senate races could affect control of the chamber in 2015.
Republicans need six seats to take over the Senate, and appear to have enough pick-up opportunities, many in states that President Obama lost in 2012. Democrats were hoping that Republican primary voters would select extreme candidates who would be unelectable in general elections, e.g., Christine “I am not a witch” O’Donnell and Todd “legitimate rape” Akin.
Republicans have largely avoided such candidates this year, and appear to have done so again in Iowa, where State Sen. Joni Ernst received enough votes to avoid a nominating convention that could be taken over by more radical elements of the party.
Mississippi remains the Tea Party’s last remaining opportunity to defeat an establishment conservative. With all precincts reporting, Chris McDaniel appeared to have beaten incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran with neither clearing 50 percent, forcing a late June run-off. The Magnolia state will still be a heavy lift for Democrats, but they got their best candidate with former U.S. Rep. Travis Childers. Meanwhile, McDaniel supporters are currently being investigated for conspiring to take pictures of Cochran’s wife in a nursing home. If McDaniel can win in June, but gets tarred by the scandal, Mississippi could save the Senate for Democrats.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, as expected, all the incumbents made the general election easily. In November, Rep. Darrell Issa (CA-49) will face Dave Peiser, Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA-50) will face James Kimber, Rep. Juan Vargas (CA-51) will face Stephen Meade, Rep. Scott Peters (CA-52) will face Carl DeMaio, and Rep. Susan Davis (CA-53) will face Larry Wilske.
All the incumbents start as heavy favorites, with the exception of Peters. Peters would have no doubt preferred to reach the 50 percent mark, but don’t read too much into his 42 percent showing. The November electorate will likely be more progressive, and people who don’t like DeMaio won’t have any other options. Tuesday’s results merely confirmed what we already knew – this will one of the most costly and competitive House races in the nation.
