Escape velocity is the speed needed to break away from a planet without eventually being pulled back by gravity. Hit it, and you can coast to the freedom of open space without hitting the jets again. For Earth, it’s about 25,000 mph.
The escape velocity of a political movement can’t be calculated, but there is a point at which the forces dragging it down have been overcome. For marriage equality, that moment may have been the legalization of same-sex marriage in Pennsylvania. Not just because it happened, but because of how it happened.
Too many media outlets focused on Pennsylvania as the last Northeastern state without marriage equality, making it sound like the obvious next step. It was not. While Pa. has voted reliably Democratic in the last six presidential elections, it is no hotbed of liberalism. Republicans hold one of the Senate seats, 13 of 18 U.S. Congressional seats, the governor’s mansion, and both houses of the state legislature. In Nate Silver’s projection of when states would defeat a gay marriage initiative, Pa. was 25th, behind Montana, Colorado and Arizona. As such, it wasn’t on the radar for action at the ballot box or legislative action.
Judge Jones’ ruling clearly puts Pa. ahead of schedule, but less so than similar rulings by jurists in Idaho and Oklahoma. What suggests we may have reached escape velocity is the fact his decision stands because there is no one willing to appeal it.
That Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane declined to appeal is no surprise – she refused to defend the Pennsylvania ban in the original case. In response to her actions, Gov. Tom Corbett hired outside council to defend the law, and was expected to do the same for an appeal.
Instead, Corbett said, “The case is extremely unlikely to succeed on appeal.” He reasserted his personal belief that marriage is between a man and a woman and threw up his hands. That likely makes marriage equality permanent in Pennsylvania, not just pending further Court action as in Idaho and Oklahoma.
Since California achieved marriage equality by a similar path, albeit one requiring a Supreme Court decision, we may not think much of it. In reality, marriage equality by lack of appeal is rare, happening only recently in Oregon. Republican governors in Idaho and Utah have appealed Federal Court decisions in favor of marriage equality, as have the Democratic governor of Kentucky and the Democratic attorney general of Arkansas; the latter while asserting his own support of same-sex marriage.
Thirty-six states will elect governors in 2014. Of incumbents running for election, Corbett is widely considered to be the most in danger of losing his seat. When an embattled Republican governor in a state run by Republicans lets marriage equality go forward, there is no turning back.
Perhaps Corbett helped equality reach escape velocity because he saw himself dangerously close to another astronomic phenomenon – the Event Horizon. That’s the moment where you are close enough to a black hole that no amount of force can pull you out. In this case, the “black hole” is being part of a simile on a future history test: “________ is to marriage equality as Orval Faubus is to desegregation.”
Corbett declined to be the fill-in to that blank. Expect more politicians to face the same choice between being the infamous answer or joining the momentum of marriage equality. The window for indecision is rapidly closing.
