WASHINGTON, D.C.— A new poll released Tuesday by The Latino Victory Project and Latino Decisions shows San Diego mayoral candidate David Alvarez with a commanding lead over opponent, Kevin Faulconer, among eligible Latino voters. The poll, which was commissioned Jan. 17, shows Alvarez with a 65-point lead with Latino voters over Faulconer. Seventy five percent of Latinos support Alvarez to just 10 percent in support of Faulconer and 15 percent undecided as all eyes turn to the 2014 Election.
“The results confirm why the Latino vote is so important, said Henry R. Muñoz, III, co-founder, The Latino Victory Project. “They show that each major candidate is going to have to engage and motivate this community on Election Day if he wants to win.”
The poll found that Latino voters are following the election closely but the degree of outreach and mobilization to Latinos has lagged. Overall, 74 percent of likely Latino voters say they have been following news about the mayoral elections somewhat or very closely. Further, 64 percent say they are very enthusiastic about the chance to vote in the upcoming mayoral election.
“The enthusiasm from Latino voters in this poll is very similar to the enthusiasm Latinos had in Los Angeles during the LA mayor’s race nearly a decade ago when Latinos showed up at the polls at a higher rate than all other groups,” said Cristóbal Alex, president, The Latino Victory Project.
The survey explores Latino attitudes in the upcoming mayoral election. 73 percent of those surveyed expressed that it was somewhat or very important to elect a Latino mayor. However, only 37 percent of likely Latino voters said they had been contacted by a campaign or candidate asking them to vote, showing that voter mobilization efforts by both campaigns will be critical.
“The critical factor in this race is going to be the rate of Latino mobilization and voter turnout,” said Matt Barreto, co-founder, Latino Decisions. “If Latino turnout is high, and if Faulconer does nothing to make inroads among Latino voters, the data suggest Alvarez should win.
The 65-point gap in favor of Alvarez directly challenges the four-point gap in favor of Alvarez among Latinos reported in the Survey USA/Union Tribune news poll. In San Diego, Latinos account for 20 percent of all registered voters, and poor estimates of the Latino vote can significantly alter the overall polling estimates. In November 2013, the same Survey USA/Union Tribune poll underestimated Alvarez’s actual support by as much as 10 points. The poll had Alvarez in third place with just 17 percent of the vote and on Election Day he finished in second place with 27.2 percent of the vote.
“In comparing our Latino data to other polls have that been conducted in San Diego, there is no question that the other pollsters have completely missed the Latino vote,” Gary Segura, co-founder, Latino Decisions. “Pre-election polls in November 2013 underestimated Alvarez by 10 points and based on their current methodology, the other polls are greatly underestimating Alvarez due to their small and non-representative Latino samples.”
“We brought a more comprehensive approach to the data collection- surveying Latinos in English and Spanish in the Latino Decisions poll”said Alex. “This is an important consideration given the demographics in San Diego. As the election cycle kicks off, other polls should be mindful of Latino voters and donors.”
