The case for: Electability
In the movie Weird Science, two tech geeks try to create the perfect woman, and end up with Kelly LeBrock. If there were a 2013 sequel in which political geeks tried to create the perfect mayoral candidate (call it Weird Political Science), they might well come up with former Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher.
As a business-friendly social liberal with an independent streak, he is in many ways the embodiment of San Diego’s political center. As a relentlessly optimistic compromise-seeking Marine veteran with a photo ready family, he may be the perfect antidote to Mayor Filner’s confrontation and scandal plagued term.
Nice guys often finish last, but Fletcher finished third in the 2012 primary. That experience clearly raised his name recognition without obviously denting his likability. In fact, by November, moderates of every party affiliation murmured a longing for Fletcher as they held their nose and voted for Filner or former Councilmember DeMaio.
Still, likability goes nowhere without money and support. Fletcher appears to have both. Having run just over a year ago, it was easy to resurrect his campaign apparatus. Fortunately, many of his donors appear to have stuck with him despite his change in party affiliation from Republican to Independent to Democrat. We’ll know more in mid-October, when candidate financial reports are due, but the inewsource.org tracker of $1,000 donations shows him comfortably ahead of his fellow Democrat, Councilmember David Alvarez.
Fletcher also leads Alvarez in the recent 10 News/U-T San Diego poll including all candidates. While that may reflect name recognition more than anything, it’s important. To make it to the general election, Fletcher needs to siphon Democratic support from Alvarez. The best way to do that is to offer the best, or better yet only, chance of beating Republican Councilmember Kevin Faulconer, something borne out in the poll’s head to head match ups.
In 2012, Fletcher was the least known candidate and the second choice of many primary voters, including Mayor Sanders. Even those who did like him best feared he could not beat the candidate they feared most (typically DeMaio or Filner). That dynamic appears to be flipped in 2013. Fletcher now leads the polls, and is pulling votes from progressives who fear a Mayor Faulconer. That shroud of electability, his supporters in the business community and his compelling personal narrative should propel him to at least the general if not the mayor’s office.
The case against: Too many positions, not enough party
By the end of the movie Weird Science, the nerds have fallen out of love with the perfect woman they created in favor of normal girls. Could the San Diego electorate similarly fall out of love with dream candidate Nathan Fletcher?
Yes.
Fletcher’s move from Independent to Democrat would have served him better for 2016. Unfortunately, the mayoral special election came up too quickly, and Fletcher now has the worst of both worlds. Without time to even vote as a Democrat, the party faithful who cheered him at the Roosevelt Dinner gave their endorsement to Councilmember David Alvarez, leaving Fletcher again without a party, or at least a party machine. Meanwhile, Republicans and Independents who supported him in the 2012 primary are still smarting that he’s a Democrat, and the flip-flops on issues and affiliation are recent enough to be news. “Changed party affiliation twice in the past 18 months” just sounds worse than “became a Democrat three years ago.”
That won’t be the worst charge. There has already been coverage of Fletcher’s position on labor issues, and there is no doubt more to come. The attacks can cost votes on both sides, with moderates hearing about more liberal positions while Democrats are reminded that it’s currently more talk than walk. While some high profile Democrats agree with him, Fletcher’s assertion that parties and politics have changed much more than his core beliefs may not save him when the Independent Expenditure (IE) ads come.
And come they will. Fletcher’s pledge to stay positive, while smart and necessary is unlikely to be agreed to by other candidates and less likely to be effective. Even if Alvarez and Councilmember Faulconer sign on, their IE supporters won’t, and getting to denounce a mean IE mailer is a great opportunity to seem above the fray.
Fletcher will no doubt have IE support of his own and will likely do well with traditional fundraising, so he should be able to get out his message and return some fire. With the Chamber of Commerce, the Labor Council and both party machines lined up against him, however, he is bound to take a few hits, and that may be all it takes.
Fletcher can’t win without some Democratic support, and much of it is currently based on electability. Alvarez can pierce that argument by bringing his own numbers up or bringing Fletcher’s down. As long as Faulconer perceives Fletcher to be the bigger threat, Alvarez will likely have his help as well. If Alvarez can close on Fletcher in the polls or on Faulconer in a head to head match up, Democrats will start coming back to him, making Alvarez more viable, bringing him more votes. And so on.
In short, while the numbers may look good for Fletcher now, they don’t tell the whole story. Once the money is spent and the ads are up, Fletcher may have a hard time keeping enough love on both sides of the middle to make it to the general.
The article neglects to address the fact that the Democratic Party endorsed Alvarez because he is in support of Filner’s platform. The uncompromising platform that permits obstructionist in the name of a good cause. This is not what San Diego wants. As a body, we are more moderate than either candidate. If we want a Mayor that is going to bring San Diego together then we need someone like Fletcher.