In my first look at the mayoral special election, I suggested that “Interim Mayor Todd Gloria may be the only thing between former Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher and a near coronation.” Since then, we have learned that former Councilmember Carl DeMaio and Gloria are out, and Councilmembers David Alvarez and Kevin Faulconer are in.
So is the Fletcher coronation still on? My Facebook sidebar says “yes”, but the numbers tell a slightly different story.
We’ll start by swapping the new candidates into the results of the 2012 primary. Faulconer (KF) gets DeMaio’s 31 percent, while Alvarez (DA) gets former Mayor Filner’s 30 percent. With District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis on the sidelines, we’ll giver Fletcher (NF) her 13 percent, as well as his own 24 percent, for a total of 37 percent. (For the record, this is the scenario for which many moderates were yearning in 2012.)
Those numbers give Fletcher a head start, which he increased by being the first major candidate to declare. Name recognition works doubly in his favor, as his is better than 2012, while Faulconer and Alvarez start with a much lower city-wide profile than did 10-term Congressman Filner and Carl “Pension Reform” DeMaio.
From here on out, I’m making up the numbers to illustrate the points. If we give Fletcher eight points for name recognition, taken equally from the other candidates, it’s KF 27 percent, DA 26 percent and NF 45 percent, a lead that is reflected in a recent 10News/UT San Diego poll. Getting the crown ready? Slow down, because the rest of the dynamics of special election 2013 likely work against him.
Off year elections tend to bring a more conservative electorate. That should benefit Faulconer, but at who’s expense? If everything just slides four points to the right, one could argue that Alvarez loses out, but not Fletcher. Now we have KF 31 percent, DA 22 percent and NF 45 percent.
The conservative slant, however, isn’t because each voter is four points more conservative. Instead, special elections bring out high propensity voters from both bases, though conservatives somewhat more. The person squeezed out is often the moderate, whose supporters may be excited, but aren’t used to voting. (See “Dede” Scozzafava, NY-23, 2010.) Since we’ve already accounted for the rightward shift, Faulconer and Alvarez both get votes from Fletcher here: KF 34 percent, DA 25 percent, NF 39 percent.
Which brings us to money and boots on the ground. Based on the iNewsource.org database, Faulconer is leading Fletcher in high level donors, with Alvarez a distant third. Despite Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez’s endorsement of Fletcher, Alvarez has the support of the Labor Council, which likely gives him the best boots on the ground. He also now has the Democratic Party and access to its dollars and activists. Faulconer will have the Republican Party, while Fletcher appears for the moment to, once again, be a man without a political machine. In summary, it’s more points from Fletcher: KF 36 percent, DA 27 percent, NF 35 percent.
The final thing to consider is how the candidates compare to their 2012 selves or doppelgängers. Faulconer has nowhere near the enthusiasm DeMaio brought to the table (-5), but also lacks some of the negatives (+2). Alvarez lacks the negatives of Filner (+3) and will likely sky-rocket the Latino vote (+2). Fletcher is no longer a socially moderate Republican or Independent (-3); he’s now a pro-business Democrat (+2).
Which leaves us at Faulconer 33 percent, Alvarez 32 percent, and Fletcher 34 percent. While I don’t think those numbers will hold up, they make it clear that the current slate will make for a closer election than the Fletcher over DeMaio coronation that seemed possible just weeks ago.
Stay tuned to LGBTweekly.com for a more detailed “Case For” and “Case Against” of each of the major candidates.
