So now we know. Mayor Filner will be succeeded by the winner of a “normal” special election, not a post recall free for all. That means the winner will have to get more than 50 percent, if not in the first special election then in the subsequent run-off. That likely narrows the slate considerably by eliminating candidates with dedicated, but small, constituencies that might have carried them to a plurality in a recall.
Given the 90 day time frame, candidates need to get their message out fast. That puts a premium on four things: name recognition, organization, rapid fundraising and enthusiasm. Here is Politically Aware‘s first look at potential candidates and how they stack up. As usual, I will dispense with the façade that the election isn’t partisan.
City Council President and Interim Mayor Todd Gloria
If anyone is the heir apparent, it’s Gloria. Even before he became San Diego’s voice of calm in the Filner maelstrom, Gloria was sounding like he might be in city politics for the long haul. His discussion of an infrastructure initiative and budget involvement showed an interest and granular knowledge of city issues unnecessary for someone planning to jump to the House of Representatives.
Gloria’s name recognition outside of District 3 probably wasn’t high a few months ago, but it’s on the rise. He has been a good fundraiser for himself and allies, who may come to his aid if he runs. The LGBT community likely gives him an enthusiastic base and an organization, the question being if and when labor and the Democratic Party as a whole get behind him. His early battles with Filner when the Council was evenly split turned off some progressives, but not to the extent they would vote for DeMaio. City Attorney Jan Goldsmith made the Filner resignation deal look legally necessary, so it will be easier for Gloria to put it behind him.
The thing most in his favor is that he will have the job, and the electorate is weary. If he is effective as interim mayor, voters may not want to rock the boat.
Assembly Majority Leader Toni Atkins
If any active politician can best Gloria in energizing the LGBT community, it’s Atkins. Unfortunately for them, she’s announced that she won’t run. With Gloria assuming only part of the mayor’s duties, Atkins may be San Diego’s most powerful politician, so she’s worth mentioning on the off chance she changes her mind.
Already known as a prodigious fundraiser, her leadership position in the Assembly gives her access to statewide dollars and organizational support that other candidates would envy. While her district covers only part of San Diego, her prior role as acting mayor and Assembly position up her name recognition.
A Gloria vs. Atkins race would divide the LGBT community and the Democratic Party, so it was never likely. If Atkins is out because she will be the next Assembly speaker, it’s good news for San Diego.
Former state Sen. Christine Kehoe
Many hoped the godmother of San Diego LGBT politics would run in 2012, but she deferred. If Democrats needed a consensus candidate to avoid a Gloria vs. Atkins showdown, or if they and Fletcher deferred, Kehoe would have been a natural choice. With Fletcher already in, Kehoe has announced she is out, and we believe her. (Actually, we believe Atkins, too.)
Former Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher
Fletcher is without a doubt the buzziest candidate, and the only one to say he’s in. His 2012 mayoral run gave him excellent name recognition, and assuming he wins the support of his current boss, Irwin Jacobs, fundraising shouldn’t be a problem.
Fletcher’s problem spots in 2013 may be the same as they were in 2012: organization and base. His crossover appeal took a hit when he moved from Republican to Independent to Democrat, and it’s hard to see Democratic loyalists handing him the keys to the mayor’s office over Gloria or Atkins. Despite a reportedly good relationship with Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzales, it’s hard to see labor giving him energetic support in a primary.
If Fletcher can get the Democrats fully behind him, he may be the biggest threat to DeMaio. With Atkins and Kehoe out, Gloria may be the only thing between Fletcher and a near coronation.
Former City Councilmember Donna Frye
Having almost been elected mayor as a write-in candidate, Frye has exceptional name recognition and some ardent supporters. With Fletcher now firmly in the Democratic camp, her independent strength may give her the most crossover appeal. While her first news conference about Filner left many scratching their heads, the extent of the allegations make her appear prescient.
Despite the enthusiasm of Frye’s supporters, they are not easily organized. In a widely divided field, they might carry her to the general, where the Democrats would get behind her. Otherwise, it’s hard to see her beating Fletcher.
Assemblymember Lorena Gonzales and Congressman Juan Vargas
If anyone could actually recreate the coalition and energy that elected Filner, it’s Gonzales or Vargas. Both are in new positions, however, and likely have job security for years, so it’s hard to see either bolting for this race. But as Atkins and Kehoe have opted out, buzz has built around Vargas.
Former Councilmember Carl DeMaio
Parties typically like their congressional candidates to be all-in on the race at hand, so DeMaio’s recent admission that he was more focused on the recall was telling. Had Filner been ousted by recall, DeMaio’s hard core supporters could easily have carried him to victory in the battle royale.
Winning the special election prompted by Filner’s resignation is possible, but more problematic. He will need to get over the 50 percent hump, which he couldn’t do in 2012. A more conservative off year electorate will work in his favor, but none of his opponents will have the Filner negatives. Still, DeMaio’s combination of name recognition, fundraising, organization and enthusiasm is unmatched, and he almost certainly clears the Republican field.
Councilmember Kevin Faulconer
If DeMaio doesn’t bolt his congressional race, the outlook for Republicans quickly becomes murky. As the Council’s apparent Republican leader, the mantle could fall to Faulconer. His name recognition pales compared to DeMaio’s, and his fundraising ability isn’t proven beyond a council race. While he could likely unite Republicans and might even improve on DeMaio’s numbers with non-Republicans, he’s unlikely to generate DeMaio’s energy. Unless voters decide they want to throw out the Democratic Party with Filner, it’s hard to see him beating any of the top three Democrats.
City Attorney Jan Goldsmith
Goldsmith has won a city wide race, and his role in the Filner resignation process has ballooned his name recognition. Like Gloria, his early term clashes with Filner can increasingly be answered by, “Look what I was dealing with,” even when Filner’s improprieties were irrelevant to the situation. His prosecution of the sidewalk chalk “vandal” could hurt him, but his biggest problem may be an uneasiness replacing the mayor with the lawyer who helped oust him. If he can morph from being merely Filner’s foil to a people’s champion, that could change.
County Board of Supervisors Chair Ron Roberts
I owe a friend for putting Roberts in my mix, but the more they said, the more it made sense. He has run for mayor before, and has good name recognition as his District encompasses a large portion of the City. His constituents include the LGBT community and downtown businesses, where he has supporters on both sides of the aisle. He doesn’t have to defend his supervisorial seat until 2014, and hasn’t yet drawn a high profile opponent, so the distraction of a mayoral run may not hurt him should he lose. Should he win, he may be able to get the seat to an ally who can run in 2014 as an incumbent. He’s not DeMaio for hustle and energy, but he brings the party a number of upsides without much downside.
Councilmember Lorie Zapf
As a first term councilmember, it’s unlikely she will run unless it falls to her because others defer. Still, she will have to run in a different district in 2014, and was a close ally of DeMaio on counsel. If he anoints her, she might be able to grab a chunk of his coalition and run with it.
The recall free for all might have been even more packed, with names like former Assemblywoman Lori Saldana, former School Board President (and current member) Richard Herrara and former Pride Director Dwayne Crenshaw in the mix. (Actually, Herrera could still be there if labor doesn’t have another candidate.) It’s hard to handicap a race with only one horse in, but I’ll give it a shot. Assuming they get in, the box trifecta is DeMaio, Fletcher and Gloria (my side bet remains that only one gets in). Who’s going to win? Pick ’em. I’m taking Gloria.
