When President Obama delayed the implementation of the employer mandate for one year, Tea Party conservatives heard what they thought was the death knell of the Affordable Care Act. Had they listened more closely, they might have realized it was their own 2014 funeral march that had begun.
House Speaker John Boehner and his caucus would like us to believe that forestalling the employer mandate is the first domino in a series of admissions that Obamacare is too complicated to work. Millions of Americans will suddenly be without insurance, and the entire policy will begin to unravel, with the individual mandate next to go. Were that the case, they would indeed have reason to celebrate. But it isn’t.
The mandate, which impacts only businesses with 50 or more employees, was never the most important part of Obamacare. More than 90 percent of such companies already provide health insurance as a recruitment and retention incentive. Few of these companies are likely to cancel coverage and risk the mass exodus of valued workers that might result.
Businesses that don’t already provide coverage have probably made their plans for 2014. Those who promised coverage will likely provide it, or risk the same employee backlash. Those who weren’t planning to comply will simply have a year without penalties. Suddenly, we are down to employees at the few businesses who were planning to provide coverage and change course midstream. The ranks of the aggrieved are growing thin.
Remember that most of those affected don’t have health insurance, so are now added to the rolls of those eligible for Medicaid expansion or the insurance exchanges. Odd that the same conservatives who feared increasing participation in Obamacare, or in Tea-Party-speak, becoming government dependents, seem to agree with the delay. Of course they don’t have much choice, as the other option involves disagreeing with their business donors. Tight spot.
So to recap, President Obama looks like a reasonable compromiser by delaying something that the business community wasn’t ready for. He removes a potential wedge issue from the 2014 elections, and in doing so, increases the pool of people who might enroll in his health plan at a time when there is concern not enough will join. Meanwhile, he can paint House Republicans as intransigent for refusing to make small legislative fixes in favor of incessantly voting on repeal (as Speaker Boehner has announced he plans to do for a 38th time). Not a bad haul.
Perhaps it’s time to stop being surprised that President Obama plays the long game successfully. He’s proven it to allies with legislative successes and to opponents with his re-election. Timing is everything, and the president realizes that what matters now is the 2014 midterm election, not tomorrow’s news cycle. If House Republicans don’t realize that soon, they may be working under Speaker Pelosi in 2015.
