New same-sex marriage poll shows strong upward shift in support

A new poll carried out for Equality California (EQCA) by David Binder Research shows that 55 percent of likely voters polled are in support of
restoring the freedom to marry and 37 percent are opposed.  There have also been some strong upward shifts in support amongst key demographics.
The key summary findings of the report are:

1. During the last decade, support for same sex marriage has substantially increased in California.

Support for same sex marriage has increased by 18 over the last ten years. At the same time, opposition has decreased. In February 2004,
after Mayor Newsom allowed same sex marriages in San Francisco, 37% of California voters supported same sex marriage, while
54% opposed. Just under 10 years later, the numbers have flipped, with 55% supporting same sex marriage and 37% opposing. Those feeling strongly have shifted in the same direction.
In 2004, 24% of likely California voters strongly supported same sex marriage and 47% strongly opposed it, a ratio of 2:1 against same sex marriage. Today, a plurality are strong supporters: 42% strongly support it compared to only 31% who strongly oppose it.

2. In the last four years, support for same-sex marriage has increased across demographic groups
Over the past four years, support for same sex marriage increased by 8, from 47% to 55%. At the same time, opposition dropped by 12,
from 49% to 37%. This resulted in an increase in net support of +20.

Gains in support are greatest among Republicans (+12), middle aged voters (+13 for 30 to 44 year olds and +17 for 45 to 64 year olds),
African Americans (+14), and those who know a gay or lesbian personally (+10).

3. Those who know a gay or lesbian are much more likely to support same-sex marriage.
Those who know gays or lesbians are significantly more likely to support same sex marriage. Those who know a gay or lesbian person are
62% supportive and only 32% opposed. Those that do not know anyone who is gay or lesbian are 36% supportive and 53% opposed.

Support has increased over the last four years from both those who know a gay or lesbian (52% to 62%) and among those who do NOT know a gay or lesbian (29% to 36%).

4. One in three recall a conversation about what gay marriage means to someone they know personally. Those who recall conversation are overwhelmingly positive.

More than one-third of all likely voters in California have had an in person conversation with someone they know personally about why
marriage for same sex couples is important to them.

Those who have had these conversations are significantly more likely to support same sex marriage.

While those who have not had such a conversation are still slightly supportive (45 supportive, 41 opposed) those who have had a conversation are 73 supportive and 26 opposed. This is an increase in net support of +43 among those who have had these conversations

In an email statement John O’Connor, EQCA executive director wrote, “The staff, board and I at Equality California are working tirelessly to be prepared for any possible outcome.  While we have no way of knowing how the Supreme Court will rule, I hold the strong conviction that we will see the freedom to marry restored in California.  This polls backs that conviction up.”