In 2010, political prognosticator Charlie Cook felt that Republicans might win back the Senate, unless they nominated far right candidates who would lose to moderate Democrats.
As his prime example, Cook used Kentucky, where ophthalmologist Rand Paul was the Tea Party choice against the establishment favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson. (In Cook’s defense, this was before Christine O’Donnell was forever connected to the phrase “I am not a witch.”)
Nationwide, Cook was right. Candidates like O’Donnell (DE), Ken Buck (CO), and Sharron Angle (NV) cost the Republicans the Senate in 2010. Cook was wrong about Paul. After besting Grayson in the primary, Paul handily won the general election against Democratic dream candidate Jack Conway, a moderate attorney general with movie star looks.
Still, he was oft dismissed as a product of nepotism, a possibly unworthy heir to the libertarian energy nurtured by his father, Texas representative and frequent presidential candidate Ron Paul. After just three years in the Senate, many of the naysayers are touting him as a 2016 Republican presidential candidate. How has Rand expanded the Paul brand? In large part by highlighting issues where he can be perceived as a moderate, albeit in a non-traditional way.
The current paradigm of political polarization is largely based on Ronald Reagan’s tripod of religious, fiscal and military conservatism. It would have you believe that political affiliations are linear, with Bible-thumping tax-cutting national security hawk Republicans on one side and secular tax-and-spend dove Democrats on the other.
That paradigm is breaking down, revealing that social, fiscal and national security issues are like arcs that spin on the size and scope of government, and overlap uniquely on each topic. Few issues demonstrate this like marriage equality, which is Armageddon to some conservatives, but to others, is the welcome end to an unnecessary government intervention.
Rand Paul is planting his flag firmly in similar spots, particularly where President Obama hasn’t lived up to billing. Like most Tea Party candidates, he was against the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), and could be Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s best hope for an unlikely bedfellow in punishing the risky financiers who have largely received a pass from President Obama. While Sen. Ron Wyden was the sole Democrat to join Paul’s drone filibuster, many went on record with similar concerns against President Bush’s secret exercises of power.
Paul’s use and timing of the filibuster also reflects a savvy for theatrics that his father lacked. A filibuster of Chuck Hagel might have garnered more support, but it wouldn’t have put him front and center. A silent hold would have made him look like a process abuser. The surprise talking filibuster of John Brennan’s nomination as CIA director was pitch perfect, allowing Paul to leapfrog the NRA as the protector of Americans from their government, claim the All-American crusader mantle from Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, etch the imagery of a hell fire missile hitting Jane Fonda in a cafe into the mind of liberals and relegate potential 2016 primary opponent Sen. Marco Rubio to wagon jumper status. Not bad for 13 hours of work.
None of this is likely to vault Paul to the top of the 2016 polls in a durable way, but it leaves him well positioned should the political winds shift. Polls suggest President Obama’s biggest electoral advantage was that voters perceived him as “caring about people like me.” In 2012, that meant economic policies that support the middle class and LGBT, immigrant and reproductive rights. Paul is no Obama on those issues, but his libertarian leanings offer him a “Sister Souljah” moment that might be more credible than Sen. Rubio or Gov. Christie.
If a 2015 drone accident or domestic security debacle pushes the economy to the background, Paul’s voice could appear prophetic.
Whether that scenario thrills you or scares you, it’s reason enough to pay attention to Rand Paul.
Scary and creepy all rolled into one, gives me the shivers with his scary, hate filled agenda under the guise of being a libertarin.