While the 2012 election was surprisingly kind to Democrats, they still control only 53 seats with two independents who will caucus with them. That means that they will need five Republican votes to get things done, on a good day. Below are 10 Republican senators that might help break a filibuster, and the issues on which they might bend. Where Nancy Pelosi will find 18 votes to get something through the House is anybody’s guess.
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska. Murkowski lost the 2010 Republican primary to Joe Miller, but beat him as a write-in candidate in the general. As such, she doesn’t owe the establishment much and doesn’t have to run until 2016. She has shown some interest in sticking it to Minority Leader McConnell, voting for the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell and DREAM Act. She could be an ally on immigration reform, and almost anything else if the deal is right – though she might require consideration for Alaskan oil companies.
Mark Kirk, Illinois. Like Murkowski, he is safe until 2016, when Illinois will still likely be a deeply blue state. Conservatives would be foolish to think that a conservative primary challenger could win in the general, but that may not stop them. Regardless, nothing could help Kirk’s re-election like favorable quotes and photos from President Obama, the last holder of his seat. That makes him a possible “Yea” vote on any issue.
John McCain, Arizona. Only the embittered post-presidential campaign McCain is a grumpy obstructionist. The pre-2008 Senator McCain was a daring voice for bipartisanship and immigration reform. If the maverick returns after a conversation with his socially moderate wife and daughter, McCain could be an important voice against DOMA and for immigration, campaign, and filibuster reform.
Saxby Chambliss, Georgia. Nothing says “I might vote to raise taxes” like telling Grover Norquist “I care more about this country than I do about a 20-year-old pledge.” Since he’s already invited a challenge from the right, his vote might also be available on immigration, given the rising Latino population in his home state.
Lindsey Graham, South Carolina. Talk about a frienemy! Graham has joined McCain in attacks against United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice while he opens talks with Democrats on immigration reform. The conservative Club for Growth has already named him a 2014 target, so on any given issue Graham might run to the right or give them the finger while helping the president.
Richard Burr, North Carolina. Burr was an entirely unexpected vote for the repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. Maybe he knows a gay servicemember. Maybe he saw the blue on his state’s horizon after 2008. Despite Mitt Romney’s 2012 victory there, North Carolina is moving toward Democrats, and Burr doesn’t run again until 2018. If he’s looking at re-election or higher office, a few moderate votes might be just the ticket.
Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania. The last Republican senator from Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter, was a Democrat first, became a moderate Republican, became a Democrat again, and lost the 2010 Democratic primary to the more liberal Joe Sestak. Toomey knows he is too conservative for Pennsylvania in 2016 without moderate cred. As the former president of the conservative Club for Growth, it’s hard to imagine a threat from his right, which gives him room to compromise. Toomey was already willing to put revenue increases on the table in the failed Super Committee. Bending a social issue or two might just be making him electable in a reliably blue state.
Tom Coburn, Texas. Coburn is notorious as the senator “No” who rejects almost any increase in government, but he has a pragmatic streak, as evidenced by his recent analysis of military spending showing that cuts in military expenditures into schools, stores and research might mitigate the effects of the sequester. Coburn is a threat to vote for any blatantly sensible plan, but it won’t be easy.
Susan Collins, Maine. Having led DADT repeal and voted for TARP, the 2009 stimulus, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, Collins has made it clear that her vote is almost always in play. That leaves her open to a primary, but only if conservatives want to lose the seat. Like her colleague Olympia Snowe, Collins is as likely to retire as to fight a Tea Party challenger, meaning her vote will remain in play, though she is a tough negotiator who will demand concessions.
Marco Rubio, Florida. Like Toomey, Rubio has almost unassailable Tea Party credentials, so he can move left without facing a primary. Unlike Toomey, Rubio appears to have imminent presidential ambitions. With an electorate begging for compromise, nothing will make him more attractive in 2016 than leadership on big compromises. Expect him to keep looking for middle ground on immigration, and find one or two other places to buck McConnell’s leadership.
