BY STAMPP CORBIN
San Diego LGBT Weekly has exclusively obtained a memorandum sent from Competitive Edge, a firm that specializes in political polling, campaign voter contact and grassroots advocacy. The memo, dated October 17, 2012 and addressed to Tony Krvaric of the Republican Party of San Diego, says that the mayoral race is tied.
The polling suggested that 43.3% of voters were for DeMaio and 43.2% of voters were for Filner with 13.0% undecided. The memo states that DeMaio has a large lead with Republicans and ideological conservatives. Interesting. Many of these voters are those who helped deny DeMaio his abilty to marry his partner by supporting Proposition 8.
The memo continues with criticism of the polling of its competitor, SurveyUSA. It suggested that the SurveyUSA sampling was flawed because it was performed through robo calls; automated calls made to voters who respond via their phone key pad. This citing of several “errors” in the SurveyUSA poll was preceded by Competitive Edge‘s claim that they can see a “clear path to victory for DeMaio.” Several other polls have suggested that Filner is leading.
When asked to comment on the references to the SurveyUSA methodology Jay Leve, an editor with SurveyUSA said, “SurveyUSA stands by its research.”
LGBT Weekly reached out to the Republican Party of San Diego County but no one could be contacted for comment.
LGBT Weekly visited the offices of Competitive Edge in San Diego to talk to John Nienstedt, the author of the memo. A Competitive Edge staffer took the letter and went to the back offices to show it to Nienstedt. A few minutes later, the staffer returned saying Nienstedt was on a conference call but had indicated that the memo was genuine. He made no further comment.
The San Diego voter now knows that polling companies are not independent. Why would Competitive Edge suggest a path to victory for DeMaio if they are supposed to be an impartial polling organization? Does that mean that when we see polls from Competitive Edge we can assume the polling is skewed to help their client? The Competitive Edge polling is in direct contrast to the results published by the San Diego Union Tribune and the Glover Park Group Sunday, Oct. 21, which suggested a dominant lead by DeMaio. Both polls were conducted at relatively the same time period of Oct. 17.
So what does all this contradictory polling suggest? That this mayoral election is all about turnout. Will Filner or DeMaio prevail, it all depends on who shows up on Nov. 6. The LGBT community needs to show up in droves to protect ourselves from the Prop. 8 homophobes. We assumed Prop. 8 would fail in 2008 to the detriment of our community. Let’s not do the same thing when we have an unprecedented opportunity to elect a mayor that is a Democrat.
