Bob Filner maintains an advantage over Carl DeMaio in the mayoral race according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV released today. With 3 weeks to go before Election Day the poll shows Filner at 47 percent and DeMaio at 40 percent. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Filner is down 3 points, DeMaio is up 2 points. Today’s results are almost identical to SurveyUSA results from 08/24/12, when Filner led DeMaio by 6 points.
However, among the 24 percent of voters who tell SurveyUSA that they have already returned a ballot in this contest, DeMaio leads 47 percent to 42 percent. These can be seen as the most committed voters. Filner leads only on the basis of voters who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to vote before Election Day, but who have not yet done so. In this way, Filner’s support appears to be “softer.”
DeMaio had led among males in SurveyUSA’s 06/11/12 poll of the contest, but in August and in September, Filner led. Today, among males, DeMaio is back on top, 46 percent to 43 percent. Filner led among voters under age 50 in June, August and September, but today is tied with DeMaio. Among voters age 50+, there is offsetting movement to Filner.
