Notwithstanding gaffes and tax releases, this time between the party conventions and the presidential debates provides a quiet moment to assess the current state of the November elections and make some predictions (anyone can wait until Nov. 5). Fortunately, the pollsters aren’t taking time off so I have plenty of data to help.
The presidency. Gov. Mitt Romney last led the Real Clear Politics polling average in October, 2011. President Obama then took over, and maintained a small but stable lead until the beginning of the Democratic Convention, when Romney pulled even for two days. Since his acceptance speech, or more importantly President Clinton’s nomination speech, Obama has opened up a 3 to 4 point lead that appears to have outlived the typically temporary post-convention bounce. State polls also show him ahead in almost all battle grounds, leaving Romney very few ways to come up with 270 electoral votes.
The only silver lining for Romney has been the Gallup poll, where he remains within two points despite their use of typically Democratic leaning registered voters. On the downside, Obama is even or slightly ahead in the Rasmussen poll, which has a Republican slant and is reporting likely voters.
The Senate. First, the no-brainer: Sen. Dianne Feinstein will win. Given that liberal hero Sen. Barbara Boxer won by almost 10 points during the 2010 Republican landslide, only two outlets have polled the race since May, and Feinstein hasn’t led by less than 16 points.
The battle for control of the Senate is a bit dicier. The 2010 wave left Republicans needing to gain three (if Romney wins) or four seats to take over in 2012, with only 10 seats to defend. Democrats are defending 23 seats, a number being in unfriendly territory due to gains in 2006 (e.g., Montana, Missouri) or retirements (e.g., North Dakota, Nebraska). Surprising events, including Sen. Olympia Snowe’s retirement, candidate Todd Akin’s inability to keep his mouth shut, and well-run campaigns by Heidi Heitkamp and Tammy Baldwin have helped the Democrats chances. With Obama’s coattails growing, the smart money is on the Democrats to keep control of the Senate, perhaps losing only one seat.
The House. Here, the national results are the easier call. Despite my crush on former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the 60 percent chance she gives the Democrats to retake control of the House is too optimistic. Democratic House candidates are definitely on the rise, but Republican controlled redistricting has made netting 25 seats too high a hurdle.
Locally, incumbent Reps. Susan Davis, Duncan Hunter Jr. and Darryl Issa are all locks for victory, as is state Sen. Juan Vargas who will replace incumbent Representative and future San Diego mayor, Bob Filner. The tougher call is the newly drawn CA-52, where “incumbent” Rep. Brian Bilbray faces a stiff challenge from former City Council President Scott Peters. This race will be a national bellwether for control of the House, and consistent with the above analysis, I expect Peters to win narrowly.
The mayor. Since the primary, the horse race numbers have been moving in Rep. Bob Filner’s direction. A September poll showed Filner with a 50 to 38 percent lead over Councilmember Carl DeMaio. As late voters prefer to back a winner, DeMaio should also be concerned that more than 70 percent of the Albondigas Political Society believe that Filner will win. If you didn’t catch the foreshadowing, Filner becomes San Diego’s first elected Democratic mayor in 20 years.
