With the primary election for mayor of San Diego less than four months away, 10News and SurveyUSA commissioned another poll of the 2012 San Diego mayoral race. Of 511 likely San Diego voters surveyed Jan. 30–Feb. 3, the candidates stand thus: Councilmember Carl DeMaio 25 percent; Rep. Bob Filner 24 percent; District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis 14 percent; Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher 13 percent; undecided 13 percent, with a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
If you’ve been following the race, the results won’t rock your world. Compared to a similar poll in September, Fletcher and undecided are the big movers, with the former gaining and the latter losing 3 percent.
In other non-news, Dumanis has lost 2 points, Filner has lost one and DeMaio hasn’t budged.
Static results may be boring most of the time, but given the events since the last poll, they are actually quite informative. Comprehensive Pension Reform made the ballot for June. Fletcher bested his competition in fundraising, notably from donors who weren’t him. Filner took heat for not doing much. There were finally forums where all four candidates participated. So what does the continued status quo mean?
DeMaio has his support locked in. If good press on pension reform didn’t help him, it’s hard to imagine what could. His numbers will likely stay static until the election, when he could outperform his polling given the voters who will come out to vote “yes” on pension reform and the conservative lean of primaries. His support has the highest floor, and the lowest ceiling.
If you buy the reports that he has yet to engage, Filner must love these results – do nothing and make the general? While it is sad that he is only taking 38 percent of Democrats, Bob Filner has a huge opportunity. Should he effectively reach the 25 percent of Democrats supporting “undecided” or “other,” or the 37 percent supporting a Republican, he could buff those numbers up nicely. Add in the support he will undoubtedly get from unions and those energized against pension reform, and Filner could be the one candidate who has an admittedly long shot at wrapping this up in the primary.
This does not mean that Dumanis and Fletcher are out of the picture. The least surprising thing in San Diego politics would be if one of them drops out, instantly making the other a contender by uniting the middle. Even if both stay on the ballot, the large number of undecided voters mean November isn’t out of reach.
The algebra student in all of us wants to divvy undecided voters equally between the candidates, or by the current proportion of decided voters. That works when undecided voters are unengaged voters. But when undecided voters simply don’t like their options, they tend to break in one direction, often toward the momentum and against the incumbent. It’s why incumbents aren’t happy until they hit 50 percent; even a 48 percent to 42 percent lead means 52 percent of people know they don’t want to vote for you.
The most likely beneficiary of an “undecided” surge is Fletcher. Dumanis and Filner have track records that span decades, and DeMaio has been largely defined by his pension initiative. Fletcher is still introducing himself to voters, and now has the funds to get his message out. With a little momentum he could easily take the bulk of the undecideds and approach the 25 percent share of Filner and DeMaio.
Dumanis, however, could benefit from a common bet on the general election: DeMaio can’t beat Filner. Republican voters who believe that might look to a known quantity with cross party appeal, aka Dumanis. Give her most of the undecideds and a few wary DeMaio voters and she’s suddenly a force.
For the moment, however, the biggest force in the mayoral election is inertia. Barring a scandal or a candidate dropping out, expect the numbers to resist change for a few more months. But don’t be surprised if the undecideds unite to push Fletcher or Dumanis toward the top as June 5 approaches.
